╨╧рб▒с>■  ■                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    T - 1) + ( 1 - ALPHA) * PREDICT( T - 1)); ! Calculate forecast errors; @FOR( PERIODS: ERROR = PREDICT - OBSERVED); ! Error terms may be negative as well as positive; @FOR( PERIODS: @FREE( ERROR)); ! Exclude meaningless Alphas of zero or one; @BND(.01, ALPHA,.9999); END MODEL: SETS: PERIODS /1..8/: OBSERVED, ERROR, PREDICT; ENDSETS DATA: ! The degree of the objective. N may be changed to 1 to minimize absolute deviation; N = 2; ! The observed values of the time series; OBSERVED = 10 14 12 19 14 21 19 26; ENDDATA ! Force Period 1 prediction to 10; PREDICT( 1) = 10; ! The objective function; [OBJ] MIN= @SUM( PERIODS: @ABS( ERROR) ^ N); ! Calculate the forecasts; @FOR( PERIODS( T) | T #GT# 1: PREDICT( T) = ALPHA * OBSERVED(■   ¤   ■   ■                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Root Entry        .CONTENTS            .                         ■                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Root Entry        *0_Ъю╧╗Є└Ё^ргЕge■─ └Contents            К                                            ■   ¤   ■   ■                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ■                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       r \cf3 ! Calculate forecast errors;\cf2 \par \cf1 @FOR\cf2 ( PERIODS: ERROR = PREDICT - OBSERVED); \par \par \cf3 ! Error terms may be negative as well as positive;\cf2 \par \cf1 @FOR\cf2 ( PERIODS: \cf1 @FREE\cf2 ( ERROR)); \par \par \cf3 ! Exclude meaningless Alphas of zero or one;\cf2 \par \cf1 @BND\cf2 (.01, ALPHA,.9999); \par \par \cf1 END\cf2 \par \par } ьЛ{\rtf1\ansi\ansicpg1252\deff0\deflang1033{\fonttbl{\f0\fnil\fcharset0 Courier New;}} {\colortbl ;\red0\green0\blue255;\red0\green0\blue0;\red0\green175\blue0;} \viewkind4\uc1\pard\cf1\f0\fs20 MODEL\cf2 : \par \par \cf1 SETS\cf2 : \par PERIODS /1..8/: OBSERVED, ERROR, PREDICT; \par \cf1 ENDSETS\cf2 \par \par \cf1 DATA\cf2 : \par \par \cf3 ! The degree of the objective. N may be changed \par to 1 to minimize absolute deviation;\cf2 \par N = 2; \par \par \cf3 ! The observed values of the time series;\cf2 \par OBSERVED = 10 14 12 19 14 21 19 26; \par \par \cf1 ENDDATA\cf2 \par \cf3 ! Force Period 1 prediction to 10;\cf2 \par PREDICT( 1) = 10; \par \cf3 ! The objective function;\cf2 \par [OBJ] \cf1 MIN\cf2 = \cf1 @SUM\cf2 ( PERIODS: \cf1 @ABS\cf2 ( ERROR) ^ N); \par \par \cf3 ! Calculate the forecasts;\cf2 \par \cf1 @FOR\cf2 ( PERIODS( T) | T #GT# 1: \par PREDICT( T) = ALPHA * OBSERVED( T - 1) + \par ( 1 - ALPHA) * PREDICT( T - 1)); \par \pa